South Africa is going down

Mhambi is really depressed. If you have been following this blog it's a no brainer to figure out why. South Africa is going down.

When things started to go awry round 1997 (ok, their were earlier signs but we all chose to ignore them), Mhambi was one of those who put the blame on the ANC's neo-liberal economic policies. I read Patric Bond, and nodded at the sage words of Sampie Terre'blance.

Spiraling crime, the lack of government could all be laid at Mbeki's laissez faire door. The fact that respected anti-apartheid campainers like Dennis Davis were being sidelined for criticising black apartheid sycophants should have warned us that more was rotten.

Unfortunately, the reality of the new racially exclusive Africanism of Mbeki and its pervasive acceptance amongst the black elite only dawned on many when he made his two nations speech. Even then the business world and whites choose to ignore it, the economy was doing just swell, and if you were wealthy so were you.

Aids? Well nobody really knew what to make of that. To ghastly to contemplate. It had me seething with rage and incomprehension.

Corruption? Debilitating. Well it was a Mbeki, a neo-liberal thing. The arms deal, Travelgate and so many more happened under his watch.

Zuma and the left seemed to be a universal panacea to me. He was not a racialist, not a denialist and he was left inclined. At last we could get the state to take care of its citizens.

It was not to be...

Then Shaik and the arms deal transpired, and Zuma was tainted. And the rape case.

Still I believed nothing could be worse than Mbeki. Besides the evidence against Zuma in the rape case was flimsy.

...but... the nagging doubts...

...legal technicalities aside, what does it say of Zuma's supporters that they still wanted a man so tainted as president? Is this a movement or a one man hagiography?

Some influential supporters would not wait any longer for us to make inferences of their character. ANC youth leader Julius Malema is threatening the Constitutional Court with promises to die for Zuma. Not to worry, don't take me literally he avers.

How are we to read that?

Even more worrying is Zwelezima Vavi's parroting of murderous threats. We are used to idiotic statements from the Youth league. We expected allot more from the leadership of an workers organisation like Cosatu.

Zuma's own lawyers have now stooped to a level where they are trying to degenerate the reputation of the court.

Now I am wondering. Is the Zunami a genuine left movement for the benefit of poor South Africans or a cult of personality ready to usher in a new elite?

Is the Zunami going to give us a social compassionate state at the expense of the rule of law? Unfortunately the first is always dependent on the latter.

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BBC radio on the arms deal and Zuma

Listen to quite a good BBC radio documentary on that arms deal, and Jacob Zuma. It includes interviews with Andrew Feinstein (ANC whistle blower), Gavid Woods (former head of the parliamentary watchdog of public accounts, Scopa) Beki Jacob (ANC intelligence), Same Sole (journalist), Rear Admiral Chris Bennet (SA navy), Patricia de Lille (Leader of the ID), Richard Young (Arms tender).


corvette SA navy
Originally uploaded by nic777.

It also includes a good explanation of how Zuma first supported and then turned against the investigation into the deal.

And this turning of Zuma by French arms company Tales would never have come to light if it was not for a fortuitous moment and an encrypted fax fell into the lap of investigators via a spurned secretary.

Oh, and theres some great singing as well.

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Was I wrong about the Zunami?

Mhambi has gone on record a number of times that Jacob Zuma might be a better president than Mbeki. He would struggle to do worse. He is more approachable, direct and that he would be a better candidate for the South African poor, because he is left leaning.

Well, is the new ANC more left? Or are we due for some more talking left walking right?

Two recent pieces of commentary and the actions of the ANC themselves have made me have serious doubts.

John Kane-Berman said earlier this week that several commentators argued that the real opposition to the government now comes from within the ruling party, not from opposition parties.

"There is a grain of truth in this, but it is mainly nonsense.

...on matters of policy, the Mbeki government seldom faced much opposition from either his parliamentary caucus or his party at large. Former education minister Kader Asmal last year spoke out against President Robert Mugabe. This belated lone voice aside, Mbeki’s policy of appeasement towards Mugabe has all along had his party’s support. Steal elections, ruin the economy, destroy the rule of law, squash human rights and ruin lives — none of this stopped the ANC, taking its cue from Mbeki, from cheering Mugabe when he jetted into town.

Nor was there much dissent on AIDS. Mbeki flirted with dissident theories and employed an equally misguided health minister, but nobody in the ANC spoke out while they thus trifled with people’s lives.

No dissent either when the government stifled the probe into the 1999 arms deal by the standing committee on public accounts (Scopa). Scopa started off its probe in a non-partisan manner. Then Mbeki and the deputy president, Jacob Zuma, weighed in with the help of ANC chief whip Tony Yengeni and the acquiescence of the speaker, Frene Ginwala. Mbeki was not prepared to permit an independent investigation.

Nobody in the ANC was willing to stand up for the right — and duty — of Parliament to hold the executive branch of the government to account for its expenditure of the public’s money. Since holding the executive to account is a parliamentary function prescribed by the constitution, this means that the majority party’s willingness to stand up for the constitution is open to doubt.

Nor is there much prospect that anyone in the ANC will object to plans to destroy the independence of the Scorpions or to undermine that of the judiciary.

These are all matters of principle, not party-political issues. But there has been little dissent on key areas of policy either. This includes the pervasive policy of racial preferencing. If black empowerment policies have been criticised, it has been on the grounds that they benefit an elite rather than the poor.

In Beards only sign of a move to the left Aubrey Matshiqi agreed:

This shift to the left is supported neither by the resolutions of the ANC’s December conference nor by the content of the budget speech, unless an increase in social spending should be seen as the victory of Marxist-Leninist-Hugo Chavezist thought over Hugo Boss-inspired policy orientations.

In my view, any shift in the short term that may occur in the ANC’s economic policy trajectory will most likely fall within the 1996 macroeconomic paradigm. This flows from my belief that the clash between newly elected ANC president Jacob Zuma and former party head Thabo Mbeki was more about a rift within the establishment and less about tensions between the establishment and an anti-establishment impulse.

Further more, the forces that united behind Zuma’s presidential ambitions should not be given some mythical leftist agenda — the support for Zuma by the Congress of South African Trade Unions (Cosatu) and the South African Communist Party (SACP) had no ideological basis.

Zuma is much closer to Mbeki in ideological terms than he is to Zwelinzima Vavi of Cosatu and Blade Nzimande of the SACP. This is why he went to the World Economic Forum in Davos and told investors there would be no change in economic policy.

Aubrey is also concerned about the increase in the budget surplus because of unspent Government money.

"What I know is that I am less excited about the budget surplus than I was before. It seems a large chunk of the surplus comes from money that the government departments fail to spend.

...This is the same Parliament that has very little influence in determining budget priorities. The problem is that the budget continues to be the tail that wags the policy dog."

But the problem is of course that the government do not have the staff and the skills to implement their budget allocations. This will be a subject of another post of mine.

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Mhambi's South Africa 2007

Mhambi is very late with this posting, my summary of Mhambi 2007.

Last year I described 2006 as a watershed year for South Africa in my posting Mhambi's 2006. A year in which open debate returned to South Africa.

If you remember, as Steven Friedman explained, this was not because of a new found commitment to democracy amongst our ruling political class, but because of the battle for control of the ANC and the state between the Mbeki and Zuma camps.

So 2007 started off with many of these 2006 debates carrying into the new year. In these debates Xolela Mangau was one of 2007's most acerbic and eloquent voices against creeping country wide corruption. Others like Rhoda Kadalie waded in.

Steeds De la Rey

There were more heated exchanges at the beginning of the year about the De la Rey song. What did it mean? What would it bring?

Leeu van die Wes Transvaal
Originally uploaded by Wildebeast1.


Tim du Plessis changed his mind (and not for the last time in 2007) . In 2006 he warned of deliberate Afrikaner civil disobedience, but now announced the arrival of a more confident participatory breed: the New Afrikaner. Pallo Jordan, the minister of Arts and Culture, warned against De la Rey song inspired treason.

The song reached the press in both the UK and US. And in the process it served as an amusing outing of international prejudices about Afrikaners.

But nowhere was its meaning as debated as among Afrikaners. Lefty journo Max du Preez saw in it the worst: racism, atavistic nationalism, a longing for the past. But poets and writers Antjie Krog, Koos Kombuis were not convinced with that line of argument.

But before you think South African 2007 debates were dominated just by a pop song. They were not. By years end it was out of the news completely.

In the US, a debate raged over what extent apartheid could be compared to current events in Israel.

Angola the country South Africa helped wreck celebrated 5 years of peace.

Britain and racism

Rather arbitrarily the BBC decided to screen a blatantly racist tribute to colonial writer Rider Haggart. Perhaps not surprising as in 2007 it transpired that Britain is a society with little self awareness when it comes to racism.

2007 was a year when racism boiled over on British TV, when Jade Goodie and other white Big Brother contestants ganging up on Indian star Shilpa Shetty. The incident had the country in a tizz. The press especially were aghast, while admitting at the same time that the opinions expressed were prevalent in British society.

Many left commentators defended Goody: she was working class, and more likely to be exposed to multi-cultural Britain than her critics they claimed. A good example was Philosopher Julian Baggini who spent six months living in Rotherham, Yorkshire. In the Guardian he professed that he doesn't believe most white Britons are racists - even though he heard racist language almost everywhere he went.

On the cultural and media front trade union solidarity won the global award for the best union website. Gazelle released a funky a stomping Afrikaans electro track, while two movies cataloging life in gay South Africa, screened in London.

Facebook took the world by storm in 2007. Also in South Africa, despite the privatised national telecoms provider Telcom's parasitic and damaging impact on the countries internet ecosystem.

Bad news aplenty

Bad news about the break down of trust and public institutions came a plenty. Many of which, like the Hlophe affair and the scandalous neglect at the Frere hospital Mhambi never wrote about himself.

Wabenzi
Originally uploaded by Wildebeast1.


I did write about the alleged corruption of the National Health minister, who was not fired, even after it was claimed that she was an alcoholic and a thief. Instead the government tried to muzzle the press. There were other posts of Afro-pessimism. Events like the casual destruction of monuments in Standerton helped to spread the gloom.

The astounding growth of crime and the corruption inside the South African police continued to make waves internationally. Journalists like Jonny Steinberg tried to make sense of the corruption and crime.

In 2007 there were less reports of xenophobic attacks on other Africans by South Africans like which transpired in 2006 when scores of Somalis were murdered. Now the focus shifted to extreme indifference towards other Africans best illustrated by the death of Adonis Musati in Cape Town.

There were valiant attempts from South Africans to reach out to each other, like when Hansie Diffenthal tried to save Halaletsang Nkome.

The Rugby World Cup

But so too did the Rugby World Cup loom large. It became clear that racial make up of the South African Springbok team would be an issue. In fact, the ANC also wanted to change the teams ' iconic name.

As the first big match of the cup approached, between SA and England, the English press went to town with prejudicial reporting: South Africans were stupid and not "every inch Western gentlemen". The verbal barrage did not save the English from a battering on the pitch however.

Neither could the spectre of Che Guevarra help the Argentines against a rampant Springbok side.

Jusr before the final The Guardian published a curious rugby article by Gavin Evans, which was duly pulled apart by readers.

Then, despite all this, the Springboks won. And Mbeki tried to surf the wave of glory. The Bok name became non issue.

Mbeki vs Zuma

He certainly needed it. Such was the the growing opposition to his control freakery that too many it seemed that he would loose the election for ANC presidency the end of the year. That placed many South Africans between a rock and a hard place who wanted neither Mbeki or Zuma in charge. Cyril Rhamaphosa entering the race was one of our great hopes.

Mbeki could and did continue to point out how the economy has grown under his leadership. But doubts remained about his success in addressing poverty.

But his Aids denialism still hung over him like a shadow, with Mark Gevisser confirming and explaining it upon the publishing of his monumental biography of Mbeki. 2007 was also the year in which a minimum number was put to the deaths caused by Mbeki's Aids inaction: 300 000.

Another book, Andrew Feinstein's After the Party, cataloged the ANC's move away from democracy and decent into grand corruption. Mhambi cerealised some of it.

By the end of the year it became clear that Mbeki would hit a wall. Some of us, Mhambi included, were optimistic. The inability of the incumbent holding on to power was that the openness had prevailed, a sign of democracy. And so Mbeki did hit a wall. Karplaks!

Better the devil you know?

Down went Mbeki, and enter stage 'left' Zuma. 2008 will no doubt be as interesting.

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Out of our blue heavens - Machine guns

South Africa is wonderfully baffling. Last week Mhambi was listening to the opening of the ANC Polokwane conference on SAFM.


Thabo Mbeki and Jacob Zuma confer at ANC conference in Polokwane, South Africa.
Originally uploaded by Pan-African News Wire File Photos.


After Thabu Mbeki and Jacob Zuma entered the conference, and Zuma-ite delegates were persuaded to stop singing Awuleth’ Umshini Wami, it was announced that it was time for delegates to sing South Africa’s charming schizo National Anthem.

Now Mhambi is not sure whether it was perhaps SAFM’s microphone set-up’s fault, or perhaps the lingering tension of Umshini Wami that went before it.

But the opening strains of the Nkosi Sikilel part of the anthem, was well, strained. Nobody was in the mood to evoke God to save Africa when delegates had just boisterously called for their machine guns.

Slowly delegates gathered themselves and Nkosi picked up a head of steam, from a death march to near death experience she went.

After this tepid performance what would transpire when they reached Die stem, I thought, half expecting the ANC crowd not to even attempt to go into ‘ve^r verlate vlaktes’ in this state.

But out they belted ‘Uit die blou van onse hemel…’ and nope this was no mirage, out came ‘die diepte van ons see’ as well. Full throttle all the way they powered to ‘South Africa our land’.

What’s going on here I thought? Was it because of the Springboks’ proud nation building Nkosi rendition at the Rugby World Cup, which was now being reciprocated?

Was it because the scheming Thabu had sometime ago maligned Die Stem, as he has done with so many other things and people, and now it was time for some of those people to rub his nose in whatever things they could find to rub his nose in?

Soon it was Thabu’s turn to deliver his ANC President’s speech. A dour two hour regurgitation of the successes of his administration, but without mentioning that were in the middle of a global commodity boom, or Aids and the crime pandemic.

When he mentioned the Springboks, Thabu brought the house down for the first and it transpired later, the second last time. The last time was when he stopped his speech. As he sat down Umshini Wami reverberated again.

Lekker.

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Don't say Mhambi did not tell you so

Prof Anton Harber confirmed today that he agrees with Mhambi. Zuma's showing in ANC nomination bodes well for the ANC, democracy and the country.

I think this is a moment to celebrate, a time to step back from the question of who is winning and recognise the victory for the processes of democracy. The test we have passed, and countries such as Zimbabwe and Angola have failed, is our capacity to challenge incumbency. We have made it clear in the past few weeks that, however dominant the ANC is as a party, no president can be secure in office if he or she neglects their base. The party leadership failed timeously to challenge Mbeki on such disasters as his AIDS policies, but the party membership rose to the occasion when their time came.

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Mbeki pole-axed at Polekwane?

All week dark clouds have gathered around Johannesburg. It was cold and miserable. And then today, alas, the sun broke through.

But in the posh coffee shops of Parktown the mood is somber.

As the Polekwane leadership contest for the ANC's top job (and perhaps the countries) nears, all indications are that the much reviled Jacob Zuma will win.

Zuma, you might remember, has fallen out with many: Not only Mbeki's cronies, but also the champagne socialialists, as well as polite middleclass South African society in general.

Mhambi is more sanguine: I'm on record saying that Zuma can not be worse than Mbeki and that he might be better.

A more open ANC?

Something else that many people seem to miss is how remarkable the situation is, particularly in an African context. A party kicks out the incumbent President by way of its branch membership. That is very rare.

Is this revolution only an example of banal factionalism, or a sign of the ANC as an organisation's inherently mature democratic core?

That will depend on how the ANC treats the loosers. Whether the party and government becomes beset by a Stalinist kind of control freakery and stifles debate as it did a few years ago during Mbeki's zenith of power.

In the mean time I'm enjoying the sun shine.

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Mbeki and Zuma have no moral authority

Mhambi has had a running debate with James over the merits of Thabu Mbeki and Zuma. Yesterday former ANC MP Andrew Feinstein launched a stinging attack on Mbeki and Zuma, saying neither is suitable to lead the country.


Andrew Feinstein
Originally uploaded by BOOKphotoSA.

And he took the words right out of Mhambi's mouth:

“The frontrunners have not displayed the requisite moral leadership to lead the ANC or the country,” Feinstein said. Mbeki’s leadership of the ANC had, he said, fundamentally changed the values of the ANC which he had so revered, and this was a tragedy.

Mbeki’s position on the HIV/ AIDS pandemic, which had seen tens of thousands of lives lost, was unforgiv able. Mbeki had also, in handling allegations relating to the arms deal, undermined the institutions of SA’s democracy — most notably Parliament.

Also, Mbeki’s support for Health Minister Manto Tshabalala-Msimang and national police commissioner Jackie Selebi was “inexplicable,” he said.

He had undermined the culture of the ANC, Feinstein said. Under his watch the party had divided into factions interested only in power and patronage.

He also reminded his listeners of Zuma’s relations with convicted swindler Schabir Shaik, and opinions voiced in his rape trial.

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Rhamaphosa enters ANC succesion battle while Cosatu warms of divorce

The Rondebosch branch of the ANC has nominated Cyril Ramaphosa as its leader. The branch counts five Cabinet ministers among its members. That is good news indeed. Mhambi is of opinion that Zuma could be a better president than Mbeki. Ramaphosa would be much preferred however.

On Mbeki he has a common touch, charm, a welcome lack of race paranoia, an understanding of the struggles of ordinary workers and the ability to appeal to all communities in South Africa. On Zuma he has brain power, fine organisational abilities, a thorough understanding of economics and business and unblemished moral stature.

Let's hope that the National Union of Mineworkers, South Africa's largest single union the union he used to represent support him.

On Sunday Cosatu warned that if Thabu Mbeki were to re-elected ANC leader, it would mean the end of the tri-partite alliance between it, the ANC and the South African Communist Party.

That would be momentus indeed, and in many ways not a bad thing either.

Meanwhile in Groutville, the party branch founded by former African National Congress (ANC) president Albert Luthuli, has nominated Thabo Mbeki for ANC president.

Arch-rival Jacob Zuma did not even make the branch's list of its top six preferred candidates.

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The big Zuma debate

transparent
Originally uploaded by max_thinks_sees.

If your a middle or upper class South African, or white, asian, coloured - apparently its time to be worried. A Zuma presidency is looming.

Should they be worried? Can Zuma be so much worse they Mbeki? Can't he be better?

Ah! I hear you say: How can somebody that thinks showering after sex will offer protection againt HIV be President! Huh well... the current President untill very recently denied that HIV caused Aids at all, and still has not thrown his full wait behind combatting the disease. He is responsible for the deaths of thousands of South Africans, more that Adriaan Vlok, the ex apartheid minister of law and order, and arguably in a more direct way. At least Zuma has been contrite and come out strongly that HIV does cause Aids.

Ah, but Zuma is a socialist. Is he? None of his economic utterances have indicated that. South Africa needs some serious government intervention if equality is ever going to be adressed in a meaningfull way. The Mbeki government has been too hands off for too long. A bit more state in this country is exactly what we need. That does not mean it will have to be a socialist state. But a social demoracy that cares for all its citizens according to their needs.

At least Zuma has never been a racialist. Unlike Mbeki who it seems, people forget, has played the race card on more than one occasion.

Mhambi is not saying that Zuma will be good for South Africa. We don't really know. But whether he will be that much worse - well he has he work cut out if he wants to achieve that.

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